September brings with it the traditional awakening of the Italian real estate market, and 2025 presents itself as a turning point after the turbulent previous years. The sector has gone through a phase of profound
The moment is particularly favorable because several positive factors converge: the decline in interest rates, the stabilization of inflation, and the return of consumer confidence. All this translates into market dynamics that promise to make the last four months of the year particularly interesting for all players in the sector.
A Finally Favorable Macroeconomic Picture
Nomisma’s forecasts outline an encouraging scenario for the entire year 2025, with 776,000 transactions expected, recording a 2% growth compared to the previous year. But it’s the evolution of the credit market that represents the real game changer. Interest rates on mortgages, which had reached a record 4.9% in November 2023, have fallen to 3.44% in August 2025, making home purchases accessible again for many Italian families.
This trend reversal is directly reflected in the pressure of demand, which has grown by 37% against a limited 4% increase in supply. The
Accessibility has improved significantly: families with two incomes have seen their market access possibilities increase by 2.2 percentage points, while even single-income families benefit from more favorable conditions. This expansion of the pool of potential buyers represents the fuel for the growth expected in the last quarter.
Prices Growing Moderately but Steadily
The price market shows a healthy and sustainable growth dynamic. In August 2025, the national average price reached 2,109 euros per square meter, recording an increase of 2.83% on an annual basis. This is a moderate growth that reflects a mature market, far from the speculative bubbles of the past but capable of ensuring a constant revaluation of real estate assets.
Forecasts for the coming years confirm this trend: Nomisma estimates growth of 1.4% for 2025 and 1.5% for both 2026 and 2027. These numbers testify to the solidity of a market that has found its balance, supported by solid economic fundamentals rather than speculative pushes.
Particularly interesting is the
Rentals as an Expanding Alternative
The rental market continues its run, with average rents in August 2025 reaching 14.39 euros per square meter per month, marking an increase of 6.75% compared to the previous year. This trend reflects a structural shift in preferences: 7.3% of demand has moved from purchase to rent, accentuating the pressure on a sector already characterized by limited supply.
Forecasts for the last quarter indicate a continuation of this dynamic, with a 2% increase in rental contracts and a 4% increase in rents. The growing difficulty of access to credit for some segments of the population, combined with the greater flexibility required by the modern job market, fuels a demand for rentals that seems destined to grow in the coming years as well.
Driving Factors for the Last Quarter
The analysis of expectations of sector operators reveals widespread optimism. 39.7% of real estate agents believe that the further decline in interest rates will support the market in the coming months, while 30.7% highlight the growing willingness to invest in bricks and mortar as a safe haven. These factors combine with the traditional increase in activity that characterizes the autumn months, when families plan moves for the following year.
The market liquidity remains high, with selling times stabilized below five months and average discounts limited to 10%. These parameters indicate a balanced market, where supply and demand meet without excesses in either direction.
The Real Estate Sensitivity Index for sales reached 57.78 in the second quarter of 2025, the highest figure since the beginning of the historical series, confirming the climate of confidence that pervades the sector.
Challenges to Monitor Carefully
However, there are elements of attention that could influence the evolution of the market. The
The level of average salaries, which limits access to mortgages for 21.2% of families, remains a structural criticality that could weigh on market growth. Moreover, the contraction of supply, which grew by only 0.3% against a strongly expanding demand, could generate price tensions in the coming months.
Strategies for the Last Quarter
The operational forecasts of industry professionals outline a scenario of substantial stability with a tendency towards improvement. 72% of the agencies surveyed expect stable prices in their territory, while 41.6% expect to maintain the same number of operations as the previous quarter and 36.5% expect an increase.
For buyers, the last quarter of 2025 represents an interesting opportunity to enter the market, benefiting from favorable credit conditions before possible new rate hikes. For sellers, the moment appears propitious to enhance properties in energy-efficient conditions, which continue to show above-average performance.
The growing interest in art cities compared to seasonal locations opens new opportunities for those who own properties in historic centers, while the persistent demand for rentals offers interesting alternatives for investors oriented towards income.
The last quarter of 2025 is shaping up to be a period of consolidation for a real estate market that has regained balance and confidence, supported by solid fundamentals and prospects for sustainable growth.
