2024 proved to be a crucial year for the Italian real estate market, marked by contrasting dynamics reflecting global economic challenges and the peculiarities of the national landscape. After a 2023 characterised by economic uncertainties and a general slowdown, the market showed signs of stabilisation, albeit with different trends depending on geographic areas and property types. Demand for housing has continued to evolve, driven by demographic changes, new housing needs and access to credit.
In this article we will analyse the overall development of real estate sales and prices in 2024, highlighting the main factors influencing the market and forecasts for the future.
Real estate sales in 2024
The number of residential property sales in 2024 fell slightly compared to the previous year, with a 1.1% decrease in the first nine months, according to data from the Italian Revenue Agency and industry watchdogs. This contraction, while moderate, reflects the impact of rising interest rates and reduced accessibility of credit for Italian households. Despite this, some urban areas maintained stable demand, driven by specific job requirements and investors looking for profitable opportunities.
At the regional level, the drop in transactions was more marked in Southern Italy, where demand was more fragile, while the North showed greater resilience thanks to the vitality of urban centres and local economies. In metropolitan cities, such as Milan and Florence, the market has been relatively stable, with signs of recovery in the new construction segment. Peripheral and rural areas, on the contrary, suffered more, highlighting the need for incentives to support demand.
Property price trends
In terms of prices, 2024 saw substantial stability at national level, with a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year. However, the picture varies considerably between different geographical areas. Larger cities, such as Rome, Bologna and Milan, recorded marginal price increases, especially in the new construction sector, driven by qualified demand and higher housing standards. On the contrary, in smaller markets and less central areas, a slight contraction of property values was observed.
An interesting aspect was the growing interest in energy-efficient properties, thanks in part to government incentives still active in 2024. This trend has helped to maintain the value of renovated, state-of-the-art properties. Dated and less competitive properties, on the other hand, have seen increased price pressure, making them a more affordable option for bargain-hunting buyers.
Rental market: a year of sustained growth
The rental market in 2024 showed a different dynamic from that of buying and selling, registering sustained growth in both demand and prices. This phenomenon was partly determined by the increase in mortgage interest rates, which pushed many families and young professionals to postpone the purchase of their first home, opting for rented housing solutions. Metropolitan cities, in particular, have seen a significant increase in demand, especially in areas close to the main university and employment hubs.
In terms of prices, rents increased by an average of 5% on an annual basis, with higher peaks in cities such as Milan, Rome and Florence. The segment of Short-term rentals, supported by tourism and internationally important events, have continued to grow, making them an attractive option for investors and landlords. However, this liveliness has raised some issues, such as the reduction in the supply of long-term rentals, which has made it difficult for residents to find stable housing solutions.
Factors influencing the real estate market in 2024
Several factors helped to shape developments in the real estate market in 2024, affecting both buying and selling and renting. Among them, rising interest rates played a key role, making credit less accessible and curbing mortgage demand. At the same time, tax policies have sought to support the sector, with incentives for renovations and energy efficiency concessions encouraging investment in renovated, high-performance properties.
General economic conditions, including lower inflation than in 2023 and a slight recovery in GDP, contributed to an environment of stability. However, territorial inequalities remained evident, with a growing gap between the most dynamic urban areas and peripheral or rural areas, where interest in the real estate market remained weak. This scenario underlines the need for targeted interventions to stimulate the market in less developed areas, both through urban development policies and tax breaks.
Forecasts for the real estate market in 2025
Looking ahead, the Italian real estate market seems poised to consolidate the signs of recovery that emerged in 2024. Experts expect a moderate increase in real estate transactions, driven by greater economic stability and government policies aimed at boosting access to credit for households and investors. At the regional level, metropolitan cities such as Milan, Florence and Bologna will continue to lead the market, thanks to strong demand and a supply of modern, well-located properties. However, the growing interest in suburban areas in medium-sized cities could rebalance the territorial dynamics, offering new investment opportunities.
The rental segment is also expected to maintain a positive trend, supported by the demand for flexible and quality solutions. Energy efficiency and sustainable characteristics of properties will remain determining factors in value assessment, in line with the growing interest in a more responsible and environmentally conscious lifestyle.
