The Italian real estate market is going through a period of significant transformation. After years of uncertainty due to macroeconomic factors and European monetary policies, industry experts have begun to outline forecasts for 2025.

According to the latest data, the current year is proving to be a turning point, with signs of recovery in both the buying and selling and rental markets. Analysis of key industry reports shows growing demand, moderate price increases and new opportunities for investors and buyers.

In this article we will delve into the main trends in the real estate market in Italy, based on data from Nomisma, Idealista, Immobiliare.it and other authoritative sources.

Current panorama of the Italian real estate market

Compared with the housing market in 2024, there has been renewed interest from buyers in recent months, boosted by a gradual lowering of mortgage interest rates and lower inflation. According to data from Immobiliare.it, demand for real estate increased by 37 percent year-on-year, while supply experienced a smaller increase of 4 percent. This discrepancy has resulted in greater competitiveness among buyers, leading to shorter time to sale. Average prices per square meter increased by 4.7 percent over 2023, with the national average reaching 2,056 euros per square meter. The trend confirms a recovery after a period of stability, especially in large cities and areas of high economic attractiveness.

The market trend is strongly influenced by the new construction segment, which continues to be limited compared to demand. The supply of newly built properties falls short of market needs, especially in cities with high housing demand. This imbalance contributes to the maintenance of high prices in high-demand areas and encourages investors to focus on properties for renovation, often with tax incentives.

Real estate forecast for 2025

Idealist’s predictions

According to an article published by Idealista, real estate prices are expected to rise slightly in 2025, in line with trends that emerged in 2024. Nationwide, real estate prices are expected to grow slightly, with an estimated change between 0% and +2%. However, homes that do not meet the quality criteria demanded by buyers, especially those in need of significant upgrading, could decline in value.

In contrast, prices are expected to rise for stately, newly built properties that are in good or excellent condition, energy efficient and located in well-serviced settings. Rents are expected to rise, supported by strong demand that will continue to confront reduced supply. In large cities, rents are estimated to increase between 4 percent and 6 percent.

Realty.co.uk’s predictions

According to the report by Immobiliare.it published on January 21, 2025, the sales market enters 2025 with an increase in demand (+37%) exceeding supply (+4%) and a recovery in price increases (+4.7%). This dynamic has caused increased demand pressure on the individual property, reducing time to sale and price declines due to increased competition among buyers.

The forecasts of Real Estate Scenarios

According to the forecast by Scenari Immobiliari, in the two-year period 2024-2025, Italian real estate sales will grow 3.4 percent by the end of 2024 and 5.7 percent in 2025. Milan is predicted to be the city with the highest price increase, followed by Venice and Rome.

Technocasa’s forecast

According to Tecnocasa forecasts, the Italian real estate market will see a slight increase in prices in 2025 , with an estimated change of between 0% and +2%. Lower-quality homes could experience a decrease in value, while stately, newly built and energy-efficient properties located in well-serviced settings are expected to increase in price. Rents are expected to rise, supported by strong demand and reduced supply, with estimated increases between 4% and 6% in large cities.

Beyond the numbers: the full picture of 2025 according to experts

According to Nomisma’s analysis, the Italian housing market is expected to stabilize in 2025, with a slight contraction in residential purchases and sales, which are expected to be around 689,000 units. Housing prices are expected to grow nominally by 1.4 percent, but considering inflation, this could translate into a negative real change.

Idealista predicts a gradual stabilization of the market in 2025, with possible reductions in interest rates as inflation declines. It is estimated that the number of transactions could exceed 700,000 units, driven by a recovery in housing demand and energy efficiency incentive policies.

According to Il Sole 24 Ore, in 2025 the Italian real estate market will see anacceleration especially in the second half of the year, supported by more expansive monetary policies and increased activity by international investors. Prices and rents are expected to rise, kept high by a shortage of new construction.

In summary, forecasts for 2025 outline an Italian real estate market in a moderate growth phase, with a stable number of transactions and slightly rising prices. However, factors such as inflation trends, monetary policies and the shortage of new construction could affect the balance between supply and demand, requiring attention from industry players.

Key factors influencing the market

One of the most relevant aspects to monitor in 2025 will be the shortage of new construction. The lack of adequate supply compared to demand has contributed to the rise in prices in the most sought-after urban areas. This phenomenon is particularly evident in Rome and Milan, where the scarcity of new residential projects is pushing investors to focus on properties for renovation or urban redevelopment operations.

Interest in sustainable and energy-efficient housing is another key factor. Buildings with high energy certification are increasingly sought after by buyers, both for the savings on consumption and the added value in terms of investment. New European sustainability regulations are pushing the market in this direction, making properties with low energy efficiency less attractive in the long run.

But the increasing regulation of short and tourist rentals is also an element to be taken into account. Some cities are implementing stricter restrictions to limit speculation on rentals for tourists, with the aim of favouring the traditional rental market: all this could influence the strategy of those who invest in real estate with the aim of achieving high returns through short leases.

Opportunities and challenges for investors

The real estate market of 2025 presents interesting opportunities for those who want to invest strategically. Emerging cities such as Bologna, Verona and Genoa still offer competitive prices compared to large centres, with growth prospects in the medium to long term. The tourism sector also continues to be a lucrative option, especially in art cities and seaside resorts, where demand for short-term rentals remains high.However, investors will face major challenges, including rising renovation costs and new building regulations that impose ever-higher standards in terms of energy efficiency. To navigate this scenario successfully, relying on professionals in the sector is a good choice. Idee&Immobili, with its experience in property management and valorisation, provides qualified support for those wishing to buy, sell or invest with a targeted strategy.